[hot spot tracking] Analysis of SMM iron ore port inventory (by country, port and variety)

According to SMM steel statistics, as of October 26, iron ore stocks in 35 ports were 133.81 million tons, up 290000 tons from 133.53 million tons last week. Tangshan recently increased the number of ships, port stocks rose slightly. The overall daily average daily port volume this week increased by 78000 tons to 2.725 million tons compared with 2.647 million tons last week.

Tangshan environmental protection group "look back" led to the Jingtang port in the first half of the week more limited, the average daily sparse port volume dropped to 260000 tons, since the sparse port returned to normal on Wednesday, the sparse port level gradually picked up. The sparse port in Shandong area maintained the normal level, the demand of inland and southern steel mills remained strong, and the sparse port rose steadily.

Port inventories have been on a downward trend since the third quarter, while sparse port levels have risen gradually since August, and demand from steel mills has remained strong; supporting ore prices have fluctuated all the way up.

Judging from the current port inventory structure, Australian mine stocks have gradually stabilized after a sustained decline in the third quarter, and Brazilian inventories have remained at a high level since they rose all the way up in July.

Subdivided into the current mainstream MNP resource inventory trend, SMM tracking Rizhao, Qingdao, Jingtang and Caofeidian four major ports MNP inventory has been declining since August. Moreover, according to current demand, it is expected to maintain a downward trend in the near future, and the structural improvement in imported mines will continue.

Generally speaking, the price difference between ore varieties may continue to adjust with the change of supply and demand in the near future, and SMM research steel mills understand that due to the current profit support and high coke prices, steel mills still prefer medium and high taste ore to maintain stable production. Therefore, the port spot price still has the strong support.

However, with the recent local heating season production restrictions have been introduced, into November around the production restrictions are expected to be gradually implemented, the weakening of ore demand remains to be seen, SMM will continue to track.